Just a few years ago there was still some doubt as to whether electric cars would become a substitute for gasoline and diesel cars, or if they would simply end up coexisting with hybrids and hydrogen-powered vehicles. Today the final photo is clear, we will all end up with electric cars in a matter of not too long. A report reveals that battery prices have plummeted 88% since 2010, but it is also a promising forecast of what will happen in the coming years. The ‘era of gasoline cars’ has come to an end.
The Rocky Mountain Institute assures in a report that electric cars will reach a market share of up to 86% in the year 2030, which is when the marketing of gasoline, diesel, and even hybrids of all types will be prohibited in Europe. guys. They predict that by the end of the decade, the participation of electric vehicles in new car sales will be between 62% and 86%. But they also highlight that oil demand has already reached its maximum peak and will enter free fall at the end of the decade. The data from the International Energy Agency reveal that 14% of all cars sold were electric in 2022. A year before it was 9%, and in 2020 only 5% were fully electric.
Electric car sales are growing exponentially
Right now, electric car growth is driven by China, the largest global market for battery-powered vehicles. In Europe, northern countries such as Norway, according to data from EV Volumes, lead the list with a market share of 71%. Indonesia, India, and New Zealand are now some of the fastest-growing electricity markets. The situation is at 20.8% market share in Europe, compared to 7.2% in the United States and 27% in China according to results from last year 2022. But the pace of adoption is going to slow down. continue accelerating in the coming years according to these forecasts.
Tesla has much of the blame after having achieved price parity concerning thermals with its latest price updates applied to the Tesla Model Y. Furthermore, with the new Tesla Model 3 Highland they have achieved the same thing. However, the pressure from Tesla has led to a considerable increase in competition for the tightest prices in the electric car market. This competition is driving change. There are more and more electric car factories active and more battery factories for this type of vehicle.
Since 2010, batteries have fallen in price by 88% and, in addition, energy density is increasing by 6% annually. The electric car has some important challenges ahead, especially the improvement of the charging network infrastructure, or the development of the battery recycling industry. At the moment everything indicates that China’s success can help find solutions in other countries since China can become the model for other countries to follow in terms of the adoption of electric cars.
The report ensures that the era of the combustion engine car is coming to an end. The demand for gasoline vehicles reached its maximum in 2017 and, since then, has not stopped reducing by 5% annually, a rate that certainly makes it clear what the trend is for the coming years. By 2030, they have already predicted that oil demand will fall by 1 million barrels per day. And global oil demand will, by then, have plummeted by a quarter. The projection, of course, could not be fulfilled if policies change along the way, or if any sociopolitical or economic aspect alters the good growth rate of the electric car that we have been seeing in recent years.
