John Murphy, an analyst at Bank of America, has assured during the Car Wars that Tesla will fail in the year 2025. He points out that Elon Musk’s brand will lose its dominant position as a manufacturer of electric cars in the United States, and specifies that it will reduce its market share from more than 70% today to around 11% in 2025. Why? Because, although he has loyal followers, it seems almost impossible that they will be able to face the wave of new electric car models that the rest of the brands have prepared.
The analyst comments, in detail, that “Elon Musk has had a 10-year gap where Tesla has been able to operate and there has not been much competition. ” He is referring to the fact that over the last decade Tesla has been dedicated to selling only electric cars and the rest of the manufacturers have not paid much attention to this technology. But now, however, ‘this gap is being filled massively and with very good products’. So this is the reason why market experts begin to predict the collapse of Tesla compared to other car manufacturers.
Tesla has not seized its moment and will fall in 2025, according to this analyst
Forecasts suggest that, by 2025, annual sales of electric cars in the United States could multiply by eight to reach a volume of 3.2 million compared to 400,000 units last year. And this represents a strong opportunity for Tesla to introduce new models on the market and expand its business volume. But it is also an opportunity for the rest of the manufacturers, who have accelerated their electrification and have multiplied Tesla’s competition.
The analyst we refer to focuses, in this report, on the US market. According to John Murphy, General Motors and Ford will be the market leaders with a market share of 15% each. GM is projected to launch 17 new models in the United States between 2023 and 2026, and Ford has already announced six launches. But in addition, Volkswagen will have 11 models and between the Hyundai and KIA brands, they will have another 13 models.
Right now the Tesla catalog is made up of only four models, and they have the Tesla Model 3 is the main pillar of the company. But what’s more worrying is that Tesla has only announced three launches: the Cybertruck, the Roadster, and the Semi. And the Semi does not compete in the passenger car market. On the other hand, the Cybertruck will not be available in the European market, so here only the Roadster will arrive as a novelty and for a minority audience.
Time will tell if the forecasts of this Bank of America analyst are met. What is clear is that it is not the first time that Tesla has been given a death date, and at the moment his trajectory speaks oppositely. Now, it is true that Tesla has not taken advantage of the moment to the extent that he could have done, and at this point, they continue with only four models on the market. And many, many broken promises.